Financial Cookie Jar

For the past 2 years Americans have been asking when we would know that we were in a recession.  While everyone was denying that there was a recession or that one was coming, it just seemed to creeping up on us.  Now few will claim that we are not in the thick of a recession.

I will write as though I am assuming that we are in a recession.  We failed to recognize the signs that we were getting into a recession, so this post will examine how we can know when we are coming out of one.

We need to watch the indexes.  The leading indexes will begin to raise as the economy begins to improve.  Watch the leading index.  Their research and information is great indication of where the recession stands.

Consider raw materials and how much they increase by over time.  More raw materials will be used as consumers show confidence in the economy.  Consumer mentality is one of the most important changes in the economy since the revenue transferred through common citizens and business provides the changes the economy needs.

Jewelry has historically followed the conditions of the economy.  When jewelry sales begin rising it will be a sign that the economy is getting back on track.  Only when people are feeling financially confident to they buy $10,000 wedding rings or other fancy items of luxury.

As restaurants begin to make money again it is another sign of the recession departing.  When people feel safe and are making more money they are willing to eat out more.  This goes for luxury items in general that are specialty products.

Many of these things are something that the consumer can see happening in front of their own eyes.  Watch for more people in these places of business and then watch the stocks of these companies as well.  This will give you some warning about when to invest and when to start spending again.

If were lucky we can make it through this recession and even make money as we come out of it.