Crude oil climbed above $90 a barrel on Tuesday – its highest level in two years. Futures rose by 1.5% to trade as high as $90.76 in New York. According to financial analysts, we should all begin to start watching closely.  The rise could put another damper on consumer spending, and add to factors slowing the economic recovery.

With the surge in oil prices, which surpassed $140 a barrel in the summer of 2008, this helped send the economy into the Great Recession that started December 2007 and ended in June 2009. It’s true that the housing and banking crisis played a major role, but so did oil shocks. The spike in prices hurt consumer spending, and especially the U.S. auto industry.

Consumption overwhelming makes up the majority of GDP — about 70%. With so many dicey variables teetering either way in today’s economy, it is anyone’s guess how this latest development could impact the consumer in the coming months.

Some professionals even predict that the commodity will hit $100 a barrel sometime next year, as demand rises from China and other emerging economies. But various factors might send prices down as well, as the spread of Europe’s debt crisis could strengthen the price of the US dollar, and send prices for the dollar-denominate commodity downward.

I view the economy as a living and breathing organism, something that can be compared to a person.  When someone gets sick, with the flu for example, they suffer many symptoms: fatigue, fever, cough, body aches, chills, etc.  As the flu runs its course all you can do to recover is rest, eat well, and stay hydrated.  Similar to a person with the flu, the economy has suffered fatigue, fever, chills, etc.  The only way the way the economy is going to recover is with time, rest, and care.  You can’t put a band-aid on an infection (i.e. cash for clunkers, home buyers tax credit) and expect it to heal properly.  It just doesn’t work that way.

So how do we know when the economy is healthy again?  First, its fever will break.  Consumer confidence will start to come back.  Oil prices and the job market will stabilize. Then its energy will come back.  Takeovers will accelerate, the unemployment rate will drop, and the IPO market will stabilize. Third, the cough will disappear and it will be business as usual.  Retail sales will balance and the travel and tourism industry will come back.  People will crack open their wallets and money will cycle through the economy.  In short, there is no quick fix.  However, the end is in sight and the economy will soon be on its way up.

Fortunately, all is not lost for those seeking jobs. There are certain careers that will weather whatever the economy throws at the American people.

1. Healthcare

This job is one of the fastest growing on the market, and you can be certain that people will get sick, despite financial cirumstances. People may be cutting back on health insurance, but in the long run, a life is worth paying hospital bills.

2. Energy

People are trying to cut back on their heating/cooling costs to save some money, but they will never be able to cut it out completely. And with the president’s interest in renewable energy and energy solutions, there are soon to be new openings.

3. Education

The law requires kids to go to school, and as long as there are kids, you’ll always have a job. Plus, with people trying to advance and be more competitive, jobs in higher education are in higher demand as well. Your best bet? Math.

4. Utilities

Garbage, sewage, water and the like are not going to disappear because of the economic downturn. People need these ammenities.

5. Food

You can’t stop eating just because the economy’s bad.

6. Human Services

Hair is going to grow, and you’ll be in for a job.

7.  Sales/Marketing

Anything to increase sales is exactly what companies need right now. Increasing their revenue will help increase yours.

It’s good to know when you’ve hit rock bottom, because that’s the best time to buy! I know what you’re all thinking, we no longer have any money. Well this is still good news for you because that means the economy is getting better and more jobs will become available.

I’m really excited about this bottoming out business. It’s horrible out there and I’m ready to see things get beetter. Knowing we’re closer to the bottom makes everything seem brighter.

For those of us though who do have a little bit of money now is the time to invest. When the economy is low and investing is cheap we need to get our money into different investments to get the biggest bang for our buck. Maybe then in a couple years when this economy starts feeling a little better we’ll be raking it in.

I think the thing most hit by this recession has been real estate, so I would suggest getting into it. Prices are low and it is once again affordable so I think it’s a safe time to jump in.

If you look at this year’s box office numbers you would think we’re not in a recession at all.  Fast and Furious just made the most for an April opening ever, and many other movies have set early year records as well.  People tend to try to escape reality when hard times fall upon them.  They want to see a happy ending, because maybe their own happy ending now looks a lot farther away.

It’s a classic example of instant gratification.  Using that money to pay off the mortgage or get rid of credit card dept would be much more beneficial in the long, but it doesn’t make us happy now.  But if we want to survive a recession, then spending less is necessary.  And spending less doesn’t mean not having fun. Shoot, for about a month now I’ve wanted to grab the two dowel rods I’ve found, rip up an old sheet and make a kite.  WAY better than the movies.

Guys, we’re kinda in a recession.  It’s not the worst thing in the world, and we’re going to get out of it.  But please start acting like we’re in a recession, or things could get worse.

Indeed, indications are that such is already happening.

Many insurance companies are reporting huge losses.  These reports are sure to damage the overall condition of these companies nearly as much as the losses that caused the reports.  Investors are estimating that many of the stocks of these companies are likely to drop by even 40% and most of them have already lost 20% of their previous worth.

What do these losses mean besides possibly higher rates?  Many investors are afraid that these losses will actually lead to the end of many of these companies, taking the health care of many people with them.

The consumer federation of America is actually advising people to look at where their life insurance stands without commiting further.  Some insurance companies are already looking to the government for a bailout.

Investors should keep in mind that these companies may soon be in dire straights.  It would also be crucial to know the condition of your company and whether your family needs to be insured under a more secure company.

I will write as though I am assuming that we are in a recession.  We failed to recognize the signs that we were getting into a recession, so this post will examine how we can know when we are coming out of one.

We need to watch the indexes.  The leading indexes will begin to raise as the economy begins to improve.  Watch the leading index.  Their research and information is great indication of where the recession stands.

Consider raw materials and how much they increase by over time.  More raw materials will be used as consumers show confidence in the economy.  Consumer mentality is one of the most important changes in the economy since the revenue transferred through common citizens and business provides the changes the economy needs.

Jewelry has historically followed the conditions of the economy.  When jewelry sales begin rising it will be a sign that the economy is getting back on track.  Only when people are feeling financially confident to they buy $10,000 wedding rings or other fancy items of luxury.

As restaurants begin to make money again it is another sign of the recession departing.  When people feel safe and are making more money they are willing to eat out more.  This goes for luxury items in general that are specialty products.

Many of these things are something that the consumer can see happening in front of their own eyes.  Watch for more people in these places of business and then watch the stocks of these companies as well.  This will give you some warning about when to invest and when to start spending again.

If were lucky we can make it through this recession and even make money as we come out of it.

I am a person who believes that government should keep their hands off of capitalism and yet if there is not some market control then we have our current problems to look at.  Namely, recession.  So what do we do?  First of all we need put realistic limits on adjustable rate mortgages that will allow banks freedom, but not undo power.

We need to remember that the limits placed on mortgages are not there just to protect individuals, but to protect the economy itself.  When mortgages can’t be paid in large amounts, like we are seeing right now, the entire country suffers the decisions that individual citizens made, because banks followed greedy tactics.

Should people not have signed those contracts?  Sure.  Should the people who created unnecessarily harsh agreements carry some of the blame?  I think so.

Some steps are already being taken in that direction. Already the U.S. Attorney General and the FBI are examining banking policies.  What these law enforcement agencies are looking for are ponzi schemes, lies to investors on the condition of hedge funds and impossible promises that motivated financial growth.

Its about time.  Justice is one of the other things that we need in order to improve our banking in the future.  While banks and hedge funds believe that they can say what they want and write contracts they want these problems will continue in the future.

As finacial honesty is enforced we will discover that the quality of our American banking system will increase

You know that I have already written on how the package is a bad idea, because the money comes from the people so paying other people to give it back to the people is just a bad financial plan. I am betting that you have noticed that I am not the only who feels negatively about the stimulus.

If you read through political magazines and the newspapers you will soon notice that the majority of the trend agrees with me. The stimulus won’t work.

The idea is that we need to stimulate our economy so that the people can live easier. Often, the years of America under FDR, during the Great Depression are compared to what we are going through. First of all this is not how it America was saved.

If not for WWII the economic collapse would have lasted significantly longer. One could argue that the money spent to stimulate the economy gave the people confidence, but our confidence now is not so shattered that we can compare, even remotely, to that Depression.

History is not going to speak perfectly to our need now. To be continued…

About his Inauguration Speech all I have to say was it was masterful. He is a good speaker. So, why do I feel unsatisfied? I guess the only complaint about President Obama’s speech is, it was a lot of words and no specific promises.

I’m not sure what I expected, but especially where the economy is concerned I am putting my “hope,” as he calls it, “in my government to start treating our money correctly, so that we will not be slammed into a perpetual recession. Granted the man has his work cut out for him. It will be no easy task to curb the train of economic struggle, but I would have liked to hear what I need to put my trust in, specifically for the next 4 years.

At this point I almost feel like if it doesn’t get worse then it will have been a success. If the situation improves…it will have been a miracle and my hope rewarded.